Hello Friends,

Looks very small down at Dee Why this morning. The MHL buoy is showing around a metre of 6 second period wind swell, so it’s not exactly a surprise that it’s so marginal. You might go a bit better at spots like Curly, Manly and Northy that do more with this kind of weak NE stuff.

The wind is expected to ramp up into a summery 20-30 kts of NE’r by this afternoon. That should lead to a few opportunities for the late at NE wind swell spots. And, since it’ll keep up overnight, tomorrow could see a touch more activity at those same places.

Have yourself a great day!

Weather Situation
A high is over the Tasman with a ridge over coastal NSW. A cold front is forecast to move through much of NSW on Wednesday and through northeastern NSW on Thursday. Along the coast, the change is currently forecast to strengthen and reach Gabo Island late Wednesday morning and the Sydney coast late Wednesday evening and the far North Coast on Thursday morning. Strengthening north to northeasterly winds are expected along southern and central parts of the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the front.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 5 to 10 knots inshore at first. Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Wednesday 30 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots becoming northerly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.
Seas
Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms in the morning, becoming more likely around midday.
Thursday 1 December
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
Up to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 metre.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms during the morning.

Hello Friends,

One of those mornings when I wish I’d been completely wrong the night before. But no, just as the Bureau and the swell models foretold, Saturday morning dawns grey and rainy with only the most feeble of little NE wind swells lapping our shores. An excellent morning to have pulled the doona up and to have stayed in the land of nod.

For what it’s worth, the showers may clear by this evening and the wind should back off a touch. But the swell isn’t likely to improve much. Indeed, it would appear that the little conditions will last through the weekend. On Monday a south change is expected to push up the coast but while the swell should build during the day, right now it looks as though it’ll be blown out until possibly right on dusk.

The little south pulse may last overnight and into Tuesday morning when the weather is expected to be partly cloudy and the winds light. Once the south fades away on Tuesday, it would then appear we’ll be back into the tiny spring conditions again.

Have yourself a top old Saturday!

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough will cross New South Wales today reaching the North Coast in the evening. A cold front is likely to reach the far South Coast later tonight preceded by strong winds in the far south. On Sunday and Monday a broad ridge will build over the state with winds remaining strong mostly in the far south due to tight pressure gradients. The high is likely to reach New South Wales coast by Tuesday with winds weakening along the coast.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Up to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly about 1 metre.
Sunday 16 October
Winds
Southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending south to southwesterly up to 25 knots around dawn then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots around midday. Winds decreasing to south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots by early evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre increasing up to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Monday 17 October
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Nothin’ going on at Dee Why this morning. A couple of folks on SUPs were noodling around on the lake-like conditions. It’s already warm and the Bureau says as we head toward the predicted 29 high, the wind will push up from the north ahead of a late south change. From the look of the modelling this morning, that change doesn’t seem likely to pack much if any punch. The Goat made his weekly call of the conditions yesterday and as usual his prognostications line up well with the latest run of super computer powered projections.

Despite the tininess in Dee Why, our man in Manly’s observations indicate that a bit of poking around might yield an opportunity or two for the extra keen…

A head’s up to all you fine folk who need to get your message out to surfers: I’ve just set up auctions for most of our October ad slots. These are all 24/7 occupancies (ie only your ad runs in the position). Last month’s bidders picked up some amazingly cheap space. Check  outthe October ad auctions here!

Have yourself a great day one and all.

Tides: L @1000, H @1630

Please be awareWind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Hello Friends,

The forecast says we have an 80% chance of rain this afternoon, but this morning the weather was just about perfect. Only problem is the swell has dried up almost completely. The MHL buoy is showing about a metre of 6 second period dribble from the NE. That translated into knee high sets for Sunday morning at Dee Why. Given those paltry numbers, I’d say there isn’t much chance of finding anything more substantial anywhere else in the Sydney region.

This morning’s run of the forecast models are showing the insubstantial conditions lasting for at least another 3-4 days. After that there is some divergence among the various riffs on the long range data. Some are showing a brief pulse around Thursday, others are showing the activity lasting for a couple days. How big? Well, again, some divergence in the interpretations, but the most optimistic is calling for 3 metres at 10 seconds Thr-Fri…

Ah well, we shall see what we shall see!

I’m off to the city shortly to do another Sunday chat session on 702 ABC’s weekend show with Simon Marnie and Rob Brander on matters beach and surf at about 1000.

TIDES: L @0700, H @1300

Weather Situation

A high near New Zealand extends a ridge to the far north coast. A cold front will cross the NSW southern and central coasts during Sunday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending west to southwesterly by early evening. Seas: Up to 2 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms from midday, mainly offshore.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending northeasterly around dawn then tending north to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots during the morning. Winds tending westerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms offshore until afternoon.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre.

 

Hello Friends,

Yep. Still small to nearly flat. Wind swell this morning is out of the NE. It’s maybe a metre out at sea, but the average period is around the 6 second mark, so it’s going to be another day of feeble and tiny conditions better suited to swimming or snorkeling than surfin’. Dee Why is a good for instance. There are a reasonable number of folk in the water as I write this before 0700, but they’re struggling to find anything above about knee high.

The forecast is calling for an increasing NE’r in the Sydney region today. 25-30kts of wind should be enough to push up some junky chest high sets at exposed spots for the late. Tide’s going to be high around 0930, so those bigger wind swell waves this afternoon will be hitting under low tide conditions. Given the prolonged period of microness (and therefore very uniform banks), that will probably mean lots of shutdowns in the mix. Nothing too unusual in that I guess, we are heading into summer after all.

Long range outlook remains much as it has been for the Sydney region – ie generally marginal to small, short period NE wind swell. Hey, what can ya do but keep on smilin’!

Go well one and all!

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. This high is expected to remain stationary for the next few days, bringing north to northeast winds to most of the coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds: Northeasterly 25 to 30 knots. Seas: 2 metres increasing to 3 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres later in the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Nice morning in Sydney. There was a light N-NE breeze as we got underway, but as expected, there’s only the weakest of weak little NE wind swell’s showing along our beaches. It’s around the metre mark at sea, but the average period of about 6 seconds does not promise much power. Sets will be in the knee to waist high range for the most part and you’ll be doing a lot of waiting around for the little buggers too.

From the shape of the latest forecast models, it appears that we’re in for another week of small to not quite flat conditions as a succession of modestly sized, short period  ENE wind swells pulse in to our region.

If you’re keen for something bigger, it looks as though you’ll have a choice of heading to far western Vicco or the far north coast and SE Queensland. The former region could be thumping toward the end of the week according to the projections, while the latter should have some size, but east winds will keep the quality at a fairly ordinary level at most spots.  However some of the points could be the goods, especially up around Noosa toward the end of the week…

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman extends a ridge over New South Wales. This high is expected to remain semi-stationary throughout the week, bringing north to northeast winds to most of the coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres later in the evening. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots around midday. Seas: 2 metres increasing to 3 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly 25 to 30 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres. Swell: Easterly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

There are some very small east wind swell waves along Sydney’s shore. You’ll need your most bouyant craft because the biggest ones are struggling to hit the knee high mark. Not much wind as the morning got started, but the call is for it to be going pretty stiffly from the NE by this afternoon. From the shape of the models I’d guess there would be a chance of something more impressive size-wise toward dusk at places that can handle the wind.

The long range forecasts of a week or so ago got it reasonably right about today, so I’m quietly confident that they’ve picked it for the next three days as well. If it all unfolds as the super computers reckon it will, we should see reasonable size, but short period, ENE swell by tomorrow morning. As Sunday goes along, the models say we can expect the periods to get longer and therefore we should also see a marked improvement by Monday morning at east swell spots that like wind out of the westerly quarters (ie everywhere!).

On current reckoning it looks as though the swell will peak at some point on Monday but it should be fun and quite good through Tuesday. The call is for a couple metres at the peak with periods in the 10 second range. That could translate into two metre plus faces on the bigger ones, so here’s hoping that we’re looking at a proper pulse for the new week!

TIDES: L@ 0645 H@ 1315

Weather Situation
A high near New Zealand extends a ridge to the New South Wales north coast. Northerly winds are increasing along the coast a low pressure trough over the state’s west slowly approaches. The trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern coast early Monday, extending to northern parts during Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending northeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly below 1 metre.

Forecast for Sunday
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning then decreasing to 10 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly 1 to 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms inshore from the late morning, extending throughout in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday
Winds: Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southerly during the morning then increasing to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Winds increasing to southerly 20 to 30 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the evening. Swell: Easterly 2 metres.

And, just for fun… it was much bigger than Sydney on Lake Michigan a couple days ago thanks to a massive low pressure system over Chicago…

Hello Friends,

Another remote report for the early risers… and the settings look pretty ordinary it has to be said. The latest from the MHL Sydney buoy is showing a paltry metre of 6sec NE wind swell. Gurk. Hard to believe there will be anything resembling surf around the joint this morning. If you’re really desperate, the NE spots might have a tiny trickle, but I wouldn’t get too hopeful. Plus the 70% chance of rain looks likely to ensure uninspiring conditions prevail all day.

If you’re around the radio at 730 this morning, have a listen to the Goat on 702 ABC radio for the expert view on your surf prospects. From where I sit, it looks like there could be a wind wave around tomorrow – if the forecast ENE wind swell develops as the models currently predict.

The week ahead currently looks pretty so-so and spring-esaque on the models. Monday morning at NE spots could be the go for the odd fun one, but beyond that it’s looking to me like a case of bumping along in and out of the barely surfable range.

Weather Situation from the Australian BoM

A high pressure system is strengthening over the central Tasman Sea. This system is slow-moving and will remain the dominant feature in the region through the weekend, bringing predominantly east to northeasterly winds to the New South Wales coast. At this stage a weak southerly change appears likely to affect the southern coast around Tuesday, before a cold front brings a more vigorous change later in the week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots around midday. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly around 1 metre tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres later. Isolated thunderstorms.
Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 20 knots. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms offshore.

Postcard from California

The last feeble remnants of a weak little NW swell dribbled away at dusk. Went for a grovel at a spot called Mesa Lane in Santa Barbara. Water was surprisingly mild given the very cold summer they’ve had here. Waves were a gutless waist high on the biggest ones, but I still managed to get a couple on the trusty 7s fish. Today sees abject flatness for most of southern California. If you’re keen for a wave, the only option is to drive north to the central coast where regions such as Santa Cruz are still picking up a little something. But the water is Vicco cold up that way… guess I’ll catch up on work.

Hello Friends,

Bumping along with little more than bumps at Dee Why this morning. The MHL data shows a tiny NE windswell of about a metre lapping in at a mere 6 seconds apart. I’m not convinced the two folks sitting at Dee Why point are going to pick up much of anything. But they’re having a go and that’s generally a good thing.

Looking at the rest of the buoy data for the NSW coast inclines your correspondent to believe that it’s weak, tiny and gutless from Eden to Tweed Heads this morning.

How patient are you feeling? Reason I ask, is because if you live along the aforementioned stretch of east facing coast, it would appear from the latest run of the models that we’re in for another week of marginal to near flatness. There’s heaps of energy in the southern ocean, but it looks like it’s all heading east rather than arcing around toward us. Hope to be proved utterly and completely wrong!

Big evening for Surfrider Northern Beaches tonight as we’ve persuaded Terry Fitzgerald to come along and share some of his unique perspective on surf, surfing and surfers. Doors open at 7pm upstairs at North Narrabeen surf club tonight. It’s a free event, so come along and check it out.

Go well with your day!

TIDES: L @0740, H @1345
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: Northwesterly 13 to 18 knots turning west and then southwesterly 20 to 25 knots.Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre. Chance thunderstorms.
Thursday: Wind: Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to south to southwest around 10 knots .Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres , abating to about 1 metre.Swell: South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Friday: Wind: Southwest to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.