Hello Friends,

I guess the good news is that it’s not quite dire enough to be absolutely unsurfable. There were a few bods in at Dee Why for the early. It’s struggling to get to waist high, so you need to be extra keen. Just to add to the picture, the wind call is for SE early followed by a gradual change to light easterlies. Blergh. Good for getting work done I guess.

The low energy settings that have been showing in the forecasts for some time now are still there. The next 5-6 days (still) look pretty ordinary for the east coast. This morning’s run of the WAMs shows what seems to be an east coast low developing late in the weekend. That’s a big call at this stage though. I guess it’s the usual story with these forecasts – it’s something to watch for now, but it’s too early to make plans.

Have yourself a great day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: Southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tending easterly by early evening and northeasterly at night. West to southwesterly winds to 10 knots inshore at first.Sea: Below 1 metre.Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: Northwest to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending north to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.Sea: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres decreasing below 1 metre by the evening.
Thursday: Wind: Northerly 10 to 20 knots.

Hello Friends,

Nice conditions this morning, shame about the swell. Wind was moderate from the NW so places like No Mans with reasonable exposure to the southerly swell direction looked nice – even though the sets are struggling to get to waist high for the most part. Banks are pretty ordinary up that way it has to be said. Actually they aren’t too flash anywhere I’ve checked lately. We’re still in the transition phase to winter, so they’re by and large pretty parallel with the shore at this stage.

General outlook for today and tomorrow is for the swell to stay at about this level. The wind is set to pick up from the westerly quarters, so while it will be nicely offshore, it’ll also be pushing against the incoming swell. If you can find a little something to steer the mal along or work with a fish, consider yourself fortunate.

The latest run of the models suggests that from about midweek we should start seeing a little more energy. A couple of the interpretations are showing a very interesting and intense long period south pulse filling in on Friday. If the call is right, we could see double overhead conditions at exposed spots. This is right at the extremity of the prediction models though, so I wouldn’t be committing to anything just yet. Might be sensible to block it out in the diary though…

Have yourself a spiffing Sunday!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: Northwesterly 15/20 knots tending west to southwest at 20/25 knots in the evening.Sea: about 1 metre rising 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Monday: Wind: West to southwesterly 20/25 knots decreasing to 15/20 knots during the morning then becoming southwesterly 10/15 knots during the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 2.5 metres abating about 1 metre in the afternoon. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

As expected, not much going on this morning at Dee Why. But the good news is that we should see a south pulse and SW wind by tomorrow morning. The wind’s set to go pretty hard by this afternoon and to blow overnight, but we should have a couple metres of south swell filling in at the same time.

With any luck the energy won’t drop away too quickly and we’ll have waves all day tomorrow with maybe a scrap left over for Wednesday at the south swell magnets.

This could be the best swell we’ve had in a couple months – if it happens as the models anticipate.

By Wednesday evening it could be back to very small. But, the patterns seem to be shifting a bit. The Bureau is watching for a possible cyclone to develop in the Gulf and some of the models are showing it sitting off far north Queensland by the weekend. That’s all a long, long way from surfable cyclone swell in Sydney, but hey, it gives us something to watch.

Go well with your day

SMS donation numbers for Haiti in this article on SMH.com.au

H @1050, L @1730
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Monday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 10/15 knots increasing to 15/20 knots in the morning and to 20/30 knots in the afternoon, chiefly offshore. Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres in the afternoon. Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres increasing.
Tuesday: Wind: SW 15/20 knots reaching 20/30 knots at first easing to 10/15 knots in the afternoon with local inshore seabreezes.Sea: 2 to 3 metres abating to 1 to 1.5 metres in the afternoon. Swell: S’ly 2 to 3 metres decreasing.

Wednesday: Wind: W’ly 10/20 knots and afternoon inshore seabreezes.

Hello Friends,

I’d say we’re well into a holding pattern. This morning finds us with only a paltry metre of south windswell. There doesn’t seem to be anything at all showing in the corner at Dee Why, so I might make a quick circuit to see how it looks up the other end of the beach.

Well, as you can see, it was very small at Longy. But it was bigger there than around the corner at Collaroy. Windswell is weak and tiny, to put it mildly.

Outlook is for it to be small for the rest of the day. Might come up a touch tomorrow and we could possibly see some south energy on Thursday, building into the solidly surfable range on Friday. My fingers are crossed tight on this one boys and girls!

Tides H @0808 and L @1454
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: E/NE 5/10 knots inshore and 10/15 knots offshore at first, becoming NE 15/20 knots throughout in the afternoon and reaching 20/25 knots in the evening. Sea: about 1 metre rising to 1.5 to 2.5 metresSwell: E about 1 metre.
Wednesday: Wind: N/NE 15/20 knots strengthening to 20/30 knots in the afternoon.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres. Swell: NE 1 to 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: NW/NE 25/33 knots

Hello Friends,

Glassy and very small this morning at Dee Why beach. We have around a metre or so of 8 sec period south windswell rolling slowly in and while it is struggling to get into the waist high range on sets, at least you can occasionally catch one.

From the look of the data coming out of the Batemans Bay and Eden buoys, there doesn’t seem to be anything particularly hopeful where we’re concerned. If anything, it’s looking consistent with the model forecasts for a gradual decline across the day.

However whilst tomorrow seems likely to be pretty similar, there is a possibility that we might see some forerunners of the expected south pulse by late in the day.

Come Monday morning though, we should be seeing fun size south swell (shoulder to head high plus is my modest hope). The wind is set to go southerly in the afternoon on Monday, but if the forecast 14-16 sec periods eventuate, I reckon it won’t be putting people off too terribly much.

With luck, the swell should keep going for at least another 72 hours. Woohoo!

Have yourself a top old Saturday one and all.

Not much too 'em, but at least you might be able to jag something rideable this morning.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: Variable 05/10 knots, tending N/NE 13/18 knots in the afternoon. Sea: below 1 metre, rising to 1.5 metres in the afternoon.Swell: SE about 1 metre.
Sunday: Wind: Variable 5/10 knots ahead of an early S/SE change 13/18 knotsSea: up to 1.5 metres. Swell: E/SE about 1 metre.
Monday: Wind: NW/NE 10/20 knots ahead of a 15/25 knot S change in the evening.

Hello Friends,

0700: just barely catchable and likely to be less so soon.

Nice morning out there. Shame about the waves though. Outlook is for a sunny start to the day, but with cloud gradually increasing in the afternoon. Should hit a high of around 26 on the coast. Wind was faint at 0700, so the little remnants of yesterday were pretty glassy for the crew in amongst them. But, as a glance at Butts’ pics from yesterday reveals, the contrast is pretty stark.

The outlook is for the swell to fade even more during the day and to basically be flat, or very nearly so, in Sydney for the next couple days. But, there is a little bright spot in the Bureau’s marine forecast this morning… ” A low is expected to deepen over the southern Tasman Sea on Friday. ”

The forecast models are all singing much the same tune on this one, namely that we should see a little burst of south swell starting on Friday night and lasting through close of play on Saturday. Wind is expected to be southerly as well, so the biggest spots (looks like head high plus at this stage), will also be wind affected.

Beyond that, it currently looks as though we’ll drop back to small to flat conditions.

Keep on smilin’ and go well with your various plans!

Hello Friends,

0800: smooth, inconsistent and small but not flat.

What a glorious morning in Sydney. Shame about the very tiny conditions. Dee Why was smooth and glassy as of 0800. There were a few people in the water enjoying the opportunity to catch a few soft little peaks too. The MHL Sydney and Port Kembla bouys have been offline for a few days, so I’m guesstimating that we have something in the range of a metre of mainly south swell with a period of around 7-8 seconds.

Here’s the Bureau’s call:
Wind: SW 10/15 knots inshore, 15/20 knots offshore, easing to 10/15 knots throughout during the morning before turning NE 10/15 knots during afternoon, N/NW later. Sea: 1 to 2 metres. Swell: SE 1 to 2 metres.

According to the various swell models, we’re in for smaller again tomorrow, and then it looks as though we have a week of flatness lining up for Sydney surfers. Basically it looks like a mainly fine week weatherwise with gutless, microscopic NE windswell from about Tuesday through the weekend. Time to get out the mask and flippers or the fishing rod I’m guessing.

I’ll be spending the day at a geek fest devoted to WordPress, the platform on which this site now runs. Trying to pick up more tips to build a better RealSurf for ya. They have wi-fi at the conference, so I might turn up here again later in the day.

Go well with your plans and have yourself a good one

0700: at least it's not SE and overcast...

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies over the coast of Sydney, and it’s set to pretty much stay this way through the weekend. Sadly, the swell forecast models were right and though all the other settings are good – the one we all care most about – is stuck fast on the sub-marginal setting.

The MHL buoy off Sydney is reporting a metre at 8 seconds. That might be just barely enough to give you a mal-able ripple if only the primary direction had a touch more east to it…

I’ve been scrutinising the models, looking for anything to offer us a bit of hope. The Goat’s call for the coming weekend is looking to be right on as usual. The problem for surfers in our little corner of the world is that we keep getting strong high pressure systems coming across the continent which then shunt the nice lows in the southern ocean away from our swell window. Typical spring weather really.