Archive for February 2017

Minimal wave prospects for Tuesday

Posted on February 28th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Outlook for waves this morning is a sparse one. The MHL buoy hasn’t reported in since yesterday evening, so the only live data I could see at 0530 was the North Head wind reading of easterly at 10-15 kts.
The Bureau says you should be seeing 1.5 metres of east which I’d guess will probably have a period in the 7-8 second range – ie knee to waist at magnets.
From the radar, it looked as though Sydney’s beaches might see showers from about daybreak. The Bureau’s long range forecast says on again off again showers and rain for the next 7 days(!)
The models are generally in agreement that the next three days are likely to be more of the same in terms of wave energy – ie, marginal, onshore and not too exciting. There does seem to be a prospect for a bump toward the weekend and then early next week some of the long range projections are suggesting Sydney might see a sort of quasi autumnal combo of SSW wind and south swell into the interesting size range.

Southern California is more or less flat, particularly up in Santa Barbara county. There’s slightly more energy way up north from here at Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz, but even there it’s quiet for late winter. The models say it’ll bumble along at this level for pretty much the rest of the week, but maybe early to mid-next week we’ll get another pulse. Here’s hoping!

Steamer Lane, sunny and small this morning

California Street, Ventura, overcast and not big enough to tempt even a SUP’r

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea and a trough off the NSW coast are expected to persist for much of the week.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
East to southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday 1 March
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Thursday 2 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Surf report

Posted on February 27th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Well there’s subshine at the moment but the wind’s still blowing. ..On the
plus side there’s a bit of size in the sets..minus side 14 out at
Warriewood constant paddling against wind and rip…Would have been out
there at their age..but I’m wiser now.😊more minuses than pluses…But look
you can find treasure after rain even
if you arent going out!


ESE wind early

Posted on February 27th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

10 after 7 this morning and at North Head the wind was 15-20 kts from the ESE. The MHL buoy’s latest data was showing 2.5 metres of 8-sec SE wind swell. So, if you don’t mind contending with onshore messiness, there should be the occasional chest plus bump at magnets. Tide’s a 1.8m high at 0940, so along with the wind and so-so swell conditions, there’s going to be an issue of fatness. And although there wasn’t much precipitation as I wrote this, the Bureau says Sydney’s coast is virtually certain to see a few showers during the day.
Tomorrow doesn’t look wildly different from today, although the models are projecting a gradual fading of average swell height. Right now it also looks like the next 5 days will be variations on a theme of onshores. Roll on the offshores of autumn!

The view from North Bondi RSL this morning

SoCal continues its wave drought and even north along the central coast, the swell energy is on the ebb. Today’s snap comes from a spot called Shell Beach. Water’s probably around 12C and waves look to be a fairly gutless knee to waist.

Shell Beach south, Central Coast, California this morning

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 28 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday 1 March
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Feeble in Sydney, same same in SoCal

Posted on February 26th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
At 0610 this morning in Sydney, the wind was already coming from the SE at close to 15-20 kts. Out at sea, the MHL buoy was detecting close to two metres of 7-sec SE bump. A band of showers had just passed over the Northern Beaches and anyone other than the most desperately keen, ought to have been rolling over for a few more z’s. Looking at the cams, I have to say that there is no sign of an unexpected improvement to surf prospects since yesterday’s report. It’s set to blow SE until tomorrow afternoon and the models are not showing anything interesting in the way of long period swell energy.
While the waves may get a bit bigger across the week, the models are saying you should expect relentless onshore wind too. Not a fabulous outlook unfortunately.
I grabbed a snap from the North Bondi RSL this morning because it had a kind of nice blurry effect.

The blurry view from North Bondi RSL early this morning

Southern California is pretty close to flat at the moment, but it looks like clean and fun conditions in the 12C water up north at Santa Cruz’s famous Steamer Lane. Here’s a snap I pulled from the Surfline cam up there.

Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz looking clean and amazingly uncrowded for a Saturday morning


Saturday and beyond

Posted on February 25th, 2017 in At large, Goat's Forecast, Surf Reports.

Something for you to read on a wet day

Waves are currently around 2.3 m offshore from dead South at 9 seconds.  Tide is high at 8.20am. It’s raining heavy at times, windy at 30-40 kph overcast and dull to dark to poor visibility…

And there are some keen ones in the water! Me… I’ll have a shower instead.

The surf doesn’t look too promising for Saturday at the moment….likely to start coming up at places open to due South, but which will also be open to the S wind … And only shortish period swell, so it’s not likely much will get into protected corners.
If you’re keen you’ll have to look hard to find that place with a sweet spot between the wind being too much, and the waves not breaking.
For the following days, not much joy at this stage… Although there’ll be waves pretty much all week it looks like most days with have onshore/onshoreish wind, so wave quality isn’t likely to be high.
Never mind.  Might be ok for a get fit swim in protected corners, or in beach rock pools
Water temp was 22 from the Noreasters yesterday…Already back up to 24 after the southerly came through.
The Bureau is forecasting several days with the chance of a Thunderstorm… Being on the open ocean, or an open beach if there’s lightning around is not the places to be then.
The Goat’s Surf Forecast 
Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 February 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well we’ve had some nice weather …and ordinary waves. ..

Now, based on the Bureau’s current weather outlook, and after TG has digested the info he swallowed from his long range over the horizon binoculars and crystal ball (there’s a picture for you),  it looks like we might have coming our way ….some ordinary weather…and some ordinary short period low quality waves!  Yum.
I can either tell you what you want to hear, or I can tell you the truth…
No use sugar coating it for you..
Friday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range East North East, might be alright in the morning before the wind turns S / SE
Saturday: starting to come up at places that get dead South swell,  but with little quality, no pulse to it and windy and choppy
Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East North East with onshore wind
Monday: pretty much ditto
Tuesday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range East North East onshoreish
Wednesday: and ditto
Thursday: 1-2 metre range East with onshore
Have fun.  Keep smiling!
TG 😊

In the Air

MSLP Analysis for Fri Feb 24 18:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windytv.com/?-33.875,151.228,5

In the Sea

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
Max 24
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very High (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Showers. Possible storm.Sydney24
Showers. Possible storm.Penrith23
Showers. Possible storm.Liverpool23
Showers. Possible storm.Terrey Hills22
Showers. Possible storm.Richmond24
Showers. Possible storm.Parramatta23
Showers. Possible storm.Campbelltown23
Showers. Possible storm.Bondi24

 

Sunday 26 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 25 to 40 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly during the afternoon and evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 27 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then tending southerly during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Tuesday 28 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely during the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Wednesday 1 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 2 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds.


Southerly Saturday

Posted on February 25th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The 0300 MHL data showed about 1.5 metres of 7-8 sec south wind swell and at 0620 the southerly was already getting close to the 15-20 kt mark. Showers were showing on the radar and it looks like there are broader and more intense areas of precipitation out at sea, heading toward Sydney. I reckon it’ll be a top morning to stay under the doona a bit longer than usual because conditions will likely be pretty sad wherever you look in Sydney.
Outlook for the next three days is distinctly ordinary too. Lots of southerlies and SE’rs and what looks like a week of generally showery weather and consistently marginal surf conditions.

Saturday morning: showery and tiny at North Bondi

Weather Situation
A high is south of the Bight and a cold front is crossing the southern Tasman Sea. The high is expected to move east across Tasmania today in the wake of the front and is expected to become established over the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday where it will remain for the coming week. A trough of low pressure should develop off the New South Wales coast on Sunday and is expected to persist through much of the week.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 26 February
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening. Winds turning easterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 27 February
Winds
East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then turning easterly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Posted on February 23rd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast
Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 February 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well we’ve had some nice weather …and ordinary waves. ..

Now, based on the Bureau’s current weather outlook, and after TG has digested the info he swallowed from his long range over the horizon binoculars and crystal ball (there’s a picture for you),  it looks like we might have coming our way ….some ordinary weather…and some ordinary short period low quality waves!  Yum.
I can either tell you what you want to hear, or I can tell you the truth…
No use sugar coating it for you..
Friday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range East North East, might be alright in the morning before the wind turns S / SE
Saturday: starting to come up at places that get dead South swell,  but with little quality, no pulse to it and windy and choppy
Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East North East with onshore wind
Monday: pretty much ditto
Tuesday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range East North East onshoreish
Wednesday: and ditto
Thursday: 1-2 metre range East with onshore
Have fun.  Keep smiling!
TG 😊

You could surf… at the right spots

Posted on February 23rd, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Nice looking morning coming up with knee to occasionally waist high sets at SE magnets. Tide was high at 0700 and will be back to low at 1340. Should be sunny and 31 later, so you won’t be astounded to hear that the wind’ll be NE by lunchtime.
Get in now and enjoy that 25 degree water you lucky pups!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman extends a ridge to the Queensland coast while a front approaches from the west. This pattern is directing east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, tending fresh to strong northeast to northerly along the south coast as the front approaches. The front is forecast to bring a southerly change to the south coast later today, reaching the central coast during Friday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Friday 24 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers inshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Saturday 25 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
South to southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. Showers heavy at times in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Postcards from Cali: break in the weather

Posted on February 23rd, 2017 in At large.

It rained pretty much all day yesterday, but right on dusk there was a break and I headed out for a look at the situation. Swell had cleaned up quite a bit after being very junky all day and there was even a little wan late afternoon sunshine. I checked west of Santa Barbara (closer than Rincon and less traffic) at El Capitan State Park and west Goleta. El Cap had maybe 20 people in the water chasing shoulder to head plus sets. Not perfect by any means, but certainly well above average quality for that place is a small crowd. Back in west Goleta one of my fave reef wonderlands was totally human-free and solidly head plus on the frequent multi-wave sets. Not possible for me to fit in a surf, so I took a few snaps to share…

Inside El Cap

El Capitan State Park, California, looking tasty

Seascape with no humans

Head plus at Deadmans

Haskells beach


Surf report

Posted on February 22nd, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Arvo update

You too could have this nearly all to yourself..but don’t rush. It’s
actually not as good as it looks..and in fact annoyed most starters..that’s
why there’s only one out.


 

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