Posts in Surf Reports

Combo swell possibilities and postcards from Calli

Posted on November 16th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
As of 0720 wind was SSW about 5kts in Sydney and the MHL buoy was seeing a combo of stuff from 30 degrees and 162-168 degrees for a total of 2 metres at 8 seconds. Should be some waist plus stuff at magnet spots I’d say. Definitely worth a quick look around just in case the Goat’s been a little too gloomy…
Santa Barbara’s still languishing in the ankle high range, but down south at Trestles it looks textured but fun – lucky pups.
I’m pinning my faint hopes on a little pulse tomorrow… but we’ll see…
Have a great Friday everyone!

Leadbetter point ankle high in Santa Barbara

Fun size at Lower Trestles

0530 WRL cam pic of sth Narra – could be worth a look around

Ventura a bit bigger than Santa Barbara, but sideshore


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 15th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 15 November 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well that doesn’t look very nice does it.. water’s got a tad cooler, air’s got a tad cooler, waves are blhh at most places, and that looks like what it’ll be like for the weekend and into early next week.  Hard to get excited about that, and there’s water falling from the sky as I write.. which is of course good but not if you want to do things outside. Tsk it’s so hard to please everyone.. anyone?? Oh well…

 

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range South East without quality or power, and accompanied by a S wind to chop it up

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East and ditto S/SE wind

Sunday: ditto, maybe up a little on sets, and onshore

Monday: dittoish, and mostly onshore, with NE wind later

Tuesday: ditto down a little, NE Wind

Wednesday: ditto up a little East South East/East North East

Thursday: ditto at dead South places only, might be small Ok if forecast offshore comes good.

Keep smiling

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 15 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 15 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp is just under 20… gone backwards a little as warmer water is staying out offshore

image

 

Tide

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EDT on Thursday 15 November 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 16 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Saturday 17 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 18 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 19 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 20 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 21 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Thursday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning


Should be something in Sydney plus postcards from Cali

Posted on November 14th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Beaches with NE exposure should be picking up a little something this morning. The MHL buoy was showing a couple of metres of 8-sec windswell from 134-136 degrees, plus some chop from the north. Wind at 0645 was 5 kts from the NNE. The WRL cam showed a fair amount of texture on the surface and the forecast is calling for 15-20kts North wind later – with swell heights bumping up too. Water is on the 20C mark. Next tide is a 1.57m high around 1240. Weather is set to be cloudy (showers early, thunderstorm possiblle later) and going to a high of 24.
From the shape of the forecasts, it looks as though this morning could be about as good as it gets over the rest of the week. General trend is for short period and small windswell – with increasing winds.

The fires continue to produce smoky skies in Santa Barbara. Only swell is a south which gets blocked in the Santa Barbara area by the Channel Islands (yep, where Al Merrick got the brand name). It looks as though the further south you go, the better the waves. Cardiff (near San Diego) was looking super fun – offshore and chest plus on the peeling sets. Unfortunately for me, it’s 5 hours of heavy traffic away, so oh well.

Have yourself a top old Wednesday everyone!

Smoky skies at Huntington Beach – and infrequent south sets

Cardiff Beach offshore and perfect little right hand slides

0530 WRL shot of sth Narra 2 metre 8sec 134 degrees


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast and is directing north to northeasterly winds along most of the coast. The next trough and associated southerly change is forecast to reach the far southern coast this evening, before moving over central waters during Thursday and northern waters during Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.
Thursday 15 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Friday 16 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.


Flatness still

Posted on November 12th, 2018 in At large.

WRL cam from this morning – no surf to speak of at south Narra


Hello Friends,
A light SE breeze when I checked conditions in Sydney (from the other side of the planet) around 1020. From the look of the WRL cam pic at south Narrabeen, the sub 1 metre 10-11 sec SSE bump wasn’t producing much of interest on a sunny Sydney morning. Ocean temp is around 20C and you’re going to a high of 25.
Surf prospects look pretty grim for the next few days, but there is some hope for maybe a little uptick on Thursday. The long range models (some) indicate that the front half of next week might actually get interesting…
No postcard from Cali this morning, but I can report that skies are smoky from the bad fires north and south of us. No decent swell in the outlook here until maybe late next week… so bah on that. Seems that California – or at least the bit I’m in – isn’t going to have much of an autumn where surf’s concerned.
Have a great day!


Saturday surf report

Posted on November 10th, 2018 in At large.

It was a beat morning until about 5 minutes ago , with people out on longboards and SUPs enjoying a small 1 metre leftover Noreast windswell…

But, now the wind has started up and will acording to The Bureau freshen from the S turning SE this morning.

You might find a protected corner with small waves before high tide at 10.44.

Don’t forget Remembrance Day – Armistice day – tomorrow … Remember the Diggers on the 100th anniversary of the end of WW1.

While researching my family’s connection to WW1 (Grandfather WIA in Belgium) and three great uncles (1 WIA Belgium, 1 KIA France) in the AIF on the Western Front, some time back I came across an unexpected sentence in the Diary of Verdi Schwinghammer on the State Library website. Verdi’s troopship, like my Grandfather’s, stopped at Durban and refuelled on their way over and he noted…

“Surfing on the fine beaches was a delight, especially as the weather was very hot.”

I think the only surf report from WW1.

 


Postcards from Cali – tiny bump land with fire

Posted on November 10th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Looks like another day of microness coming up in Sydney this morning. Wind was offshore, but the MHL buoy report from a metre of 5-sec period wind chop from the southern quarters. And judging from the
Bureau’s call, there’s no relief in prospect for a few days yet. The models show an iflux of strong NE wind midweek, but though the waves should bump up, it’ll be low quality short period windswell – and the biggest stuff is likely to be where the onshores are strongest.
Meanwhile, we too are waiting for something to improve in California. It’s really small up and down the coast, and where I am, it’s flat.
Yesterday my sister and I drove down to Malibu to check out a California State park site called the Adamson House. The place was built by a family that owned most of the Malibu area in the early 20th century and it’s right on the point at Malibu. Great example of the Spanish style and a fun spot to visit for history buffs – plus you can check out the ‘bu. Driving back to Santa Barbara, we saw the first smoke from a serious fire that started in the hills inland from Malibu. Like Australia, California is having more bad fires each year as the climate gets hotter and hotter thanks to us humans…

Wave magnet Lower Trestles getting textured by late morning onshores (Surfline pic)

Biggest waves in all California at Morro Bay

Ideal location for watching Malibu

Blasting wind blowing up a fire that would soon close the main north south freeway (101) in southern California.

Empty ‘bu (flag at half mast for latest mass shooting)

Wave of the day for hydrofoil rider

Malibu crowd

heading out at almost-empty Malibu

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. A trough will bring a weak southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast today, before stalling and dissipating on the Macquarie coast. The Tasman high is then expected to remain dominant for several days, with the next trough forecast to arrive during the second half of the week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then becoming east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon.
Sunday 11 November
Winds
South to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming southeasterly in the middle of the day then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 12 November
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 8th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 8 November 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What is that cold wind all about!!? It brought up some very windy surf at places open the dead South but the wind and the surf are expected to ease off tomorrow.

 

The surf outlook is for continued easing off through to Tuesday and Wednesday when there should be some Nor East windswell to play with.

Friday: down from today into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places with occasional moderate sets

Saturday: down to around the 1 metre mark East South East

Sunday: smaller 1 or less than 1 metre South East

Monday: around 1 metre or so East North East

Tuesday: into the 1-2 metre range East North East

Wednesday maybe a bit bigger at the sourthern ends of beaches in the 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: 1-2 metre range East South East then starting to come up later from the South.

Remember the Diggers on the Western Front on the 100th anniversary of the end of World War 1, Sunday.

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  8 07:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  8 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.054,150.696,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp is currently around 20… but there’s warmer water creeping southwards down from the North Coast

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 9 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Saturday 10 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then turning east to southeasterly in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 11 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 12 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 13 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 14 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 15 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 25 km/h before tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning


Postcards from Cali: small waves here and there

Posted on November 7th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The MHL buoy was showing a metre of bump from the south at about 7 seconds at 0600. Wind is light SSW and the predicted rain doesn’t seem to have turned up yet.  Water’s 21C according to Beachwatch and tide was a deep 1.7 m at 0800.

The WRL pic tells the story as  of 0530… tomorrow should look rather different as the southerlly does its thing…

WRL picture 0530
Nothing happening in my part of California, but there were waves of a sort at magnet spots like Ventura and Trestles, which is above expectation. Here are a couple snaps from surfline’s cams.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand is directing generally northerly winds along the New South Wales coast, with a cold front and associated southerly change extending north today. The front is forecast to reach the northern border early Thursday. Behind this, a new high pressure system is expected to approach from the west, and should become the dominant weather feature for several days thereafter.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending southerly 20 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon.
Thursday 8 November
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Friday 9 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

surprisingly surfable looking at Ventura this morning

The usual crew on it at lower Trestles (surfline pic)

(Big day here in the USA as the mid-term elections are on. Every couple years the whole house of reps is up for election and a third of the senate, plus heaps of state and local races. Usually non-presidential election years don’t get much interest, but this time the reaction against the current president has seen unusually high turnout. For a political junkie like your correspondent, it’s a rivetting spectacle.)


Hot day

Posted on November 6th, 2018 in At large.

Hot and humid and cloudy day ahead …33 max but feels very warm already at only 24.

No wind so the surface is glassy.. but the surf is small to flat.  Might get a little improvement as the tide runs out.

Go well…small swell


Postcards from Cali: we’re tiny too

Posted on November 6th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Looks like another small day in Sydney with wind out of the NW early and not much swell (at 0600 it was less than a metre from the south at 12 seconds or so). No surf today would be my guess.
Outlook is for smaller again tomorrow ahead of a late south change. The change should push up some junky wind blown stuff on Wednesday – along with 30-50mm of rain. So not the most exciting outlook I’m afraid. The longer range models don’t look the best for Sydney either. If they’ve called it right, there will be waves in the chest high range at exposed spots, but the prospect is for it to be wind affected and short period.
And here in Santa Barbara you’d be hard pressed to find anything catchable above the knee high mark. It’s the same all the way up to Santa Cruz and down to around LA. South of there in southern Orange and northern San Diego county, there seem to be a few slightly better options. But not by much. Hoping for a southern hemisphere swell next week…
Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Looks like it could be interesting on a much bigger day

Shorey chasing swimmers

Santa Barbara town spot, one person out. Sadly this wave shutdown a second later.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea is directing generally northerly winds along the New South Wales coast. A trough, currently in the state’s west, is expected to bring a change to the southern coast later today, followed by a stronger southerly surge as a cold front sweeps across the region. This front is forecast to affect most waters on Wednesday, reaching the northern border early Thursday. Behind this, a new high pressure system is expected to approach from the west, and should become the dominant weather feature for several days thereafter.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.
Wednesday 7 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Thursday 8 November
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


 

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