Posts in Surf Reports

Before the heat

Posted on December 14th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It’s set to be very hot in the western suburbs today and not exactly cool on the coast. At 0700 wind was coming from the north at 4-5 kts. That should pick up soon as we head to an afternoon with winds of 15-25 kts from the N-NE. There’s definitely more wind swell evident this morning. The MHL buoy was picking up 1.7 m of 8-sec NE wind bump, so there should be some scrappy, close together stuff at NE spots. Quality may be so-so, but at least you can get wet if you’re moderately keen.
The Goat will drop his predictions for the week ahead later today, so as always I’ll be keen to see his take on the prospects. My quick scan of the models suggests that today and tomorrow could be about as good as it gets for the next week or so… hope the Goat’s more optimistic!
Have a great day everyone and stay hydrated!

Maybe a tiny bit more activity than yesterday but still barely above flat at 0650

Surfer tries to get into one near No Mans at 0650

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. A short-lived southerly change is expected on the south coast this afternoon and evening, progressing to the Hunter or Mid North Coast on Friday before weakening. Another weak change is forecast to affect southern parts of the coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots. A south to southwesterly change 20 to 25 knots reaching the inshore parts late at night.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.

Friday 15 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots throughout, early in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 16 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

A quick Curly sesh

Posted on December 13th, 2017 in Curl Curl.

Rebuilding fitness after long layoff due to ear op, so dropped by nth Curly for a paddle. The little gutless east wind swell was focussing enough to produce the odd chest plus face and though pretty busy I managed to get 10 waves. Fun was had on a warm morning just ahead of the wind. Grabbed some snaps with my goofy binos rig…


Tiny to near flat this morning

Posted on December 13th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

We’re in for a very warm and windy weather today, but very little in the way of wave energy. As of 0700 there were several people hanging out in the shorey near Kiddies but it looked feeble and not much above the knee high mark. Wind was light NNE when I grabbed the pictures but it’s set to build up to 15-25 kts by midday. The MHL buoy report from 0400 showed 1.1 m of 11-sec east swell – which is actually a bit bigger than the same time yesterday. So, there should be the odd bump at places that had waves yesterday.

Tide was a 1.5 m high at 0545 and will be back to low right on noon.

Get on it early if you you’re going to get on it I’d say.

Outlook is for more of the same across the next couple of days (ie onshores and tiny wind bump, with morning’s being best shot)

A few folk bobbing hopefully in the knee to waist high zone at Dee Why around 0700

Faint hint of a line toward No Mans 0700

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters. A short-lived southerly change is expected on the south coast Thursday afternoon, progressing to the Hunter or Mid North Coast on Friday before weakening. Another weak change is forecast to affect parts of the coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 14 December

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Friday 15 December

Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Another quiet one

Posted on December 12th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light NE breeze wafting along before 0700. Skies were mostly clear, although there seemed to be clouds out to sea . There was no sign of so much as a surfable bump at Dee Why nor up the beach toward No Mans. You’ll need to look elsewhere if you’re keen to get wet. Tide was high at 0455 and will hit low at 1055 – not that it maters much given the weak swell conditions. The MHL buoy was showing a metre of 10-sec SE at 0400 and that’s almost exactly what we were seeing at this point yesterday. So, if you found waves yesterday morning, I’d start by looking there again.

Outlook remains less than interesting on the swell forecast models. There still seems to be some prospect for a little east bump on Saturday. But thereafter currently looks kinda sad.

Oh well, it is summer, so keep on smilin’, the waves always come back!

No surf at Dee Why this morning

Only ripples at No Mans 0640

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days. This high will direct east to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters today, but these winds will become increasingly northerly as the week progresses. The next significant change will arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 13 December

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 14 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Very small on Monday morning

Posted on December 11th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light NNW wind, sunny skies, but very tiny looking at Dee Why. Couldn’t see anyone in the water. A quick scan of the cams shows that you might get a knee high dribbler elsewhere thanks to the 1 metre 9-sec east wind bump. Take a very floaty object and an optimistic attitude if you’re going for a look. Tide hits the low at 0945 and will be back to the high at 1550. By then the NE’r should be up to full strength, so the plan is to hit it sooner rather than later.

Outlook for the next few days is not too interesting wave-wise. I hope the swell models are wrong because they’re all pretty dour about our prospects through to the end of the work week.

Have a great day and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region during the next few days, although a trough will briefly affect the southern coast today. This pattern will see southeast to northeasterly winds directed over New South Wales waters, becoming increasingly northerly as the week progresses. The next significant change will arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots, becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday, and reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 13 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

Warm start on a day of tiny waves

Posted on December 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light easterly breeze was wafting across the beaches at 0730 this morning. There didn’t seem to be much energy down at Dee Why though. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at the point or up the beach. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.1 m of 11-sec SE swell. Tide is low at 0830 and will be back to high at 1445. Magnets may be picking up something in the knee high range on sets, but I’d be surprised if there was anything much above the waist high mark.

This morning’s run of the swell forecast models doesn’t look too exciting. Prospects seem to be for the current low-energy state to be maintained through the coming week, although at least one of the predictions is showing a prospect for some waist plus NE bump on Thursday-Friday. Hope they’re undercalling it…

Have a great Sunday and may the good ones come your way if you get in!

 

Weather Situation

Winds will generally tend southeast to northeasterly this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature over the region for the following days, although a weak trough is forecast to bring a brief southerly change to southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching northeasterly 15 to 20 knots for a time during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 December

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

So-so Saturday

Posted on December 9th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The odd sunny break as Saturday got started. Wind kept going all night but as of 0630 it was 7-8 kts from the SE at North Head – it should pick up soon though. Tide was dropping to the 0.57 m low at 0730 (high is 1.7 m at 1345 and out at sea the 0400 report from the MHL buoy showed 2 metres of 9-sec SSE swell.

As you can see from the pics (click to see full size) the steady south breeze was chopping up the waist to chest high sets from 0630. Wave quality was not too spectacular but it did seem to be reasonably consistent for those keen types willing to put up with the junky conditions.

Outlook for tomorrow seems to be okay for the dawn patrol when wind should be light. But  as the morning goes along the east to SE breeze will pick up before going NE in the afternoon. The general energy trend is for the primary swell energy to be coming from the east – and fading across the day.

Right now Monday and Tuesday are not looking too hopeful for waves. The models tell us to expect short period junk and onshores peaking around the 20 kt mark in the afternoons. There does seem to be some hope of a slight improvement to wave heights at sea late in the week, but periods are forecast to be in the choppy 6-8 second range. So, very much a summery outlook.

Have yourself a great Saturday one and all!

Weather Situation

Southerly winds will gradually tend southeast to northeast this weekend as a weak high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to be the dominant feature in the region over the following days, although a weak trough is likely to briefly affect southern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 10 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 11 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Waves for the early session

Posted on December 8th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The wind is set to swing around from the NW to the south soon and by lunch it could be 15-25 kts. That’ll radically reduce surf options. And then there’s the deep 1.84 m high tide that’ll peak at 1250. So get on it ASAP if you can. Swell was coming from the east at 2 metres at 9 seconds early this morning.

As of 0700 waves at the point were in the waist to shoulder range and up the beach it looked to be a bit bigger. Surface conditions were somewhat bumpy, but it looked like there were plenty of clean faces to play on.

Outlook you ask? Ah, well, may I refer you to the ever perspicacious Goat who has, as usual, rolled out his considered look at the surf prospects for the next week.

Have a great day and get in if you can!

Cruising one at the point 0700

Another set at 0700

Up the beach, fun to be had

Weather Situation

Winds will tend north to northeasterly along the northern New South Wales coast today ahead of a front that is approaching from the west. Winds will generally be west to southwest for the remainder of the coast ahead of the front. This front will bring a southerly change to southern waters this morning, central waters this afternoon and the north coast this evening or Saturday morning. Winds in the new week will tend southeast to northeasterly as a high pressure ridge extends from the Bight to the Tasman Sea in the wake of the front.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 9 December

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Sunday 10 December

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 7 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

It’s a very busy time of the year… Yesterday I saw every break from the Bower to Pittwater as I drove past them… to do other stuff.  Pre-storm they were all the same… A Mess…. with individual variations from A Big Mess to a Small Mess. So when I saw all white water this morning I assumed it was same again, and I had other things to do anyway. Apparently some lucky people were able to get in the water and had some fun waves.

Not sure the waves and younger more energetic crowds would have suited me anyway.  It’s a very busy time of the year…in and out of the water.  All I can say to you is, that if you were or are able to get in the water at the right time, you either don’t have any responsibilities… Or you’re irresponsible!!!

I won’t comment further, as I still have other things to do.  Comforting me a little is that conditions will be quite changeable over coming days, so you’ll have to be on your toes.  I see lots of green cold water patches out to sea among the blue patches.

There should be wWaves of varying size, quality, and wave direction and wind direction all week, but at least there’ll be waves of some sort at the right time, right place…

Friday: still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, East, possibly with some bigger sets

Saturday: southerly type winds should know it down a bit but still in the 1-2 metre range and swinging more South East, with some sets at dead South places

Sunday: down to more manageable levels for the average punter, in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East South East, with occasional slightly bigger sets from the East

Monday: about 1 metre or so SE with some mild sets from the East

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so, let’s say Eastish

Wednesday: 1-1+ etres North East

Thursday: ditto.

Do your best to have fun, and be responsible!  Stay safe.

And I’ve gotta go now!!!

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec  7 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec  7 04:30:00 2017

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is currently 20, but was only 16 a few days ago,  There might be more cold/warmer currents ahead for a bit.

 

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 8 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon and strengthening to 25 to 35 km/h near the coast from the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 9 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 10 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 11 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 12 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 13 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 14 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Hot in the west. Medium (40%) chance of showers, mostly in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending westerly during the day.


Thursday late morning update

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Hope you were lucky enough to get in somewhere this morning. What a beautiful postcard of a day. Fun shoulder to head and bit sets were on tap from Long Reef to the point – and lots of other places too.
My first tentative surf after my surfer’s ear op a couple months ago. Longest I’ve been out of the water since 1983! Had a fun sesh at Longy with a smallish crowd – at least one of whom is a long time RealSurfer. So good to be back in the water. When I got out, I grabbed the camera and took a few snaps to share…

Dee Why point, 1115

Dee Why point

Dee Why point

Kiddies keeping them entertained

Dee Why fun times 1105

Not far from the Pole, 1045

Blowing the top of one near the lagoon, Dy to Longy


 

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