Posts in Surf Reports

Not amazing at Northy

Posted on February 19th, 2018 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

Inconsistent and surprisingly weak looking at North Narrabeen where a small crowd is hanging around waiting for the odd shoulder high wave face to turn up. Rides were short and you had to work to stay in the section.


Swell continues on Monday

Posted on February 19th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Small waves at the point 0700

Little lines at No Mans

Hello Friends,
After peaking late yesterday evening at around the 2 metre mark out at sea, this morning sees it dropping back to 1.7 m at 12 sec from the south and NE. Surface conditions were relatively smooth early thanks to a light easterly breeze. It should go SE later and pick up into the 10-15 kts by noon. Tide was low at 0500 and is coming into a 1.67 m high at 1125.

There were three or four people in the water at the point when I grabbed the snaps. It looked to be in the waist high range with the odd chest-ish sets. But the NE component of the swell was quite episodic yesterday so I imagine it’s the same today and in fact the Bureau has posted a warning for large and powerful surf conditions. If you’re a beginner, you really need to watch the conditions for awhile before diving in at a magnet spot.

The latest modelling from the Bureau shows the NE swell building across the next 24 hours. Unfortunately the wind is going to pick up from the SE this afternoon and by tomorrow morning it’ll be belting along at 20-25 kts. So not the best outlook for surfin’. And it could be Thursday before the wind starts to relent.

Go well with you adventures today and yep, I’m likely to post a few more pics later, so maybe check back from time to time.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system is centred south of the Bight, while a broad area of low pressure lies over inland New South Wales. Tropical Cyclone Gita lies over the northern central Tasman Sea. The high is expected to move to the south of Tasmania today and to the southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to pass to the east of Lord Howe Island today then to turn southeast towards New Zealand. Between the two systems a fresh to strong southeasterly airstream will develop on the New South Wales coast today then should gradually ease over the following days.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Easterly about 10 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 20 February

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 21 February

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy.

Sizable sets this morning

Posted on February 18th, 2018 in At large.

Sole rider pulls into one at Gardens

Lefts and rights at Northy for the Sunday crowds

Standing room only at the point

Another set arrives at the Pole

Lining up and shutting down the order of the day on sets at Dee Why beach, 0700

Point rider

Bigger sets had some heft

 

Hello Friends,

Had a look around at about 0700 this morning to see what the swell was doing. It’s an interesting mix of south and NE energy. Wave faces on the sets are solidly overhead. I’d call it 1.5x. The problem is that the swell is mature and that means the beach break options are seeing major shutdown action, particular when the bigger sets roll in. The point at Dee Why was very well attended (I counted about 25 people at 0700) and there was something of a wait for the bigger sets, but it wasn’t bad. Up the beach toward the Pole sets looked a bit bigger, but there was the shutting down problem. Around at Collaroy-Narrabeen, the beaches were looking peak-free but at Northy people were finding something. (I had a look at Northy yesterday and at midday at least, the quality was not great. The banks just weren’t operating at their usual high standard.)
Surface conditions were reasonably smooth for the early session. Wind will pick up and be 15-20 kts NE by this afternoon. Tide is coming into a 1.7 m high at 1045. It should be mostly sunny after the morning cloud burns off and our high is set to be 29. Water is a crazy 25.

Swell should continue to pump for the next few days with early mornings being the best hope for smooth conditions. With luck there’ll be something surfable all week…

Have a top old Sunday and know your limits (especially you beginners!)

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea is directing southeasterly winds along the north coast and northeasterly winds along the south coast. As the high moves further east, an approaching front over the southern ocean will bring a southerly change to the south coast later tonight or early Monday. In the wake of the front, a new high pressure system will strengthen to the south of Tasmania and extend a ridge along the New South Wales coast, resulting in fresh to strong south to southeasterly winds along the entire coast from late Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 19 February

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 20 February

Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 2.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

A few piccies from Curly around midday

Posted on February 17th, 2018 in At large.

Curly was about the cleanest looking spot I saw this morning – radically better than the slop fest I enjoyed with three others at the point an hour before. Even so, Curly was pretty weak looking and kinda fat. Lovely day though and good to be in the water.

The crew at one of the North Curly peaks around 1230

Watching a set

Maybe 5 metres from dry sand…

Curly somewhat fat but sets looked ok

South Curly more wind affected

 


Some swell, some wind

Posted on February 17th, 2018 in At large.

Dee Why point 0640

Near the pole 0640

Not super clean or very big at the point, but rideable

Swell starting to show at south Narrabeen

Kneelo jags one at Northy 0630

Near the Pole, 0640

Hello Friends,

Nothing like as big as most of the models predicted this morning. But the swell’s definitely picking up and the cyclone is still out there pushing the energy our way. Surface conditions were junky and choppy from first light thanks to a steady ENE breeze. It was blowing about 5-10 kts when I grabbed the pics around 0630 and the Bureau tells us it’ll pick up to 15-20 kts later. As of 0400 there was a combo of south and NE swells. The south component was slightly more dominant but both are close to the 2 metre mark with periods around 12 seconds.

Tide hits a 1.75 m high at 1015.

As the pictures show, waves were in the chest high range and kinda messy looking. And the latest run of the models suggests it will stick around this intensity until Tuesday-ish when we could see a potentially significant bump up. But right now, it would seem the really big stuff will be up north. Quality is shaping to be not so red hot thanks to a steady supply of onshore wind right across the period.

Have yourself a great Saturday. I’ll be keeping an eye on it of course, so check back for more pics and thoughts later in the day.

 


0830 looking fun – with waits

Posted on February 16th, 2018 in Manly.

Got a park at Queensie and grabbed some snaps for you. Swell quite inconsistent but North Steyne was picking up head high sets between the lulls. Nothing showing at the Bower and Queensie end touch smaller than middle of beach.

Solid on the rare sets at North Steyne

North Steyne 0830

Queenscliff set wave 0830

South Steyne


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 15 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Hey, you know those Warnings on labels that you never read?… And those Alerts on things you just ignore???

Well here’s TG’s upfront Alerting Warning

The Surf Forecast below, particularly for later in the week is what is likely to happen IF Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita out in the South Pacific BEST TRACKS where she is currently expected to (Gita herself isn’t expected to come near Oz). IF SHE DOESN’T, the Surf here could turn out smaller. The BoM says that Tropical Cyclones have a reputation for being unpredictable.

And another thing… Current weather forecasts suggest more chopping and changing SE/ NE onshore winds.

So I wouldn’t get too excited about the Outlook for Wave Quality if the Big Waves do come.

Stay cool and Go with the Flow…

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East; watch for the sets in the upper end of the range

Saturday: ditto similar

Sunday: ditto and up a little on the sets

Monday: similar

Tuesday: up into the 3-4 metre range East South East and sets (What did I tell you??.. see above)

Wednesday: 2-3 metre range East South East and sets (ditto?)

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East 

Apropos nothing in particular, or maybe as a homage to possibly Big(ger) Waves, here’s a little something to enrich your education and entertainment experience…Learn something new each day
Tick off all those you’ve been to! And yes… there is a “Big Wave”!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%27s_big_things

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 15 06:30:00 2018

There’s Gita…off to the right

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Down in the Sea

Water temp’s about 24

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Oh, here’s some more Large Surf warnings for you…

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 16 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower at night. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then turning southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 17 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly in the late morning and afternoon.

Surf conditions in the evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 18 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the evening. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 19 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Tuesday 20 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 21 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 22 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Dee Why junky but bigger than it’s been

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Stopped by Dee Why around 1015 and grabbed the pics below. SSE wind is light but it was starting to really mess things up. I’m waiting for the tide to drop, but am wondering if it’ll be worth it by then.

Working a little DY shorey 1015

Lines up the beach

Lines at the point

The crew on it near Kiddies

Just up the beach from DY SLSC 1015

Rideable lumps at the point every now and then


Bigger lumps at Curly

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Curl Curl.

Half a dozen chasing shories in the middle of the beach at Curly. Wind not going strong but it was very lumpy and messy looking. The plan was to risk life and limb on the inside where the slop briefly transformed into chest plus crunchers as it unloaded on the banks. Definitely more energy and size than yesterday. The MHL buoy was showing 2.7 m at 9 sec from the SSE as of 0700.

Looked like this for 0.5 s and then it was over – mid Curly

Only a few meters from dry sand at 0940

The crew among the choppy bumps at mid-Curly

Sole occupant at North Curly


Hints of things to come?

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Manly.

Hello Friends,

Stopped by Manly a little after 0900. Tide was pretty fat and full, the SE wind was bumping it up, but as I sit here typing it’s wandered around to the SW – and the swell is definitely bigger than it’s been over the last few days. I’d call it knee to waist right now at Queensie. Will be interesting to see what I find at Curly and Dee Why, but based on what I’ve seen here, I’m prepared to call it just starting to pick up…

Setting it up

Mid-Steyne cutty

Unsurfable at the Bower, but maybe later??

Beach walkers

South Steyne scene

Busting one

Weather Situation

A southerly change associated with a cold front is moving along the New South Wales north coast and weakening. Winds will briefly turn northerly later on Thursday ahead of another southerly change developing on the south coast overnight and moving up the coast during Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre in the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 16 February

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots before dawn then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending east to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Saturday 17 February

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

 

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