Posts in Big Picture

Fire

Posted on November 11th, 2019 in Big Picture.

Dee Why Monday evening 630 pm

Looking toward Elanora Monday evening 630pm

Tuesday’s forecast is horrific. As I write this on Monday evening the blue skies of this morning are gone, replaced by a smoky beige. And the wind is gusting into the 30 kt range.

Here’s the latest from the Bureau:

Fire Weather Warning

for the Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Far South Coast, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes and Southern Riverina fire areas

Issued at 3:45 pm EDT on Monday 11 November 2019.

Weather Situation
Hot, dry and gusty winds will generate very dangerous fire conditions across large parts of the state on Tuesday.

For the rest of Monday 11 November:
Very High Fire Danger in the following fire area:
Southern Riverina
For Tuesday 12 November:
Catastrophic Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region and Illawarra/Shoalhaven
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
North Coast, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Far North Coast, Far South Coast and Monaro Alpine
Very High Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains and Southern Slopes
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:

Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
The Rural Fire Service advises that if you are in an area of Severe Fire Danger:

If you plan to leave finalise your options and leave early on the day
Only stay if your home is well prepared and you can actively defend it
Prepare for the emotional, mental and physical impact of defending your property – if in doubt, leave.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.

These fires are a direct consequence of the climate emergency. We no longer live in the world us older people grew up in. From now on we will face catastrophic conditions like Tuesday at an ever-increasing frequency. This is a matter of physics. This is not a thing that might happen. It is something that will happen – for the rest of our lives. And for centuries to come if humans don’t stop adding CO2, methane and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere.

With the terrible threat facing us, it is exactly the time to name the climate emergency for what it is.

If you haven’t seen it already, please go read this article in today’s SMH by Greg Mullins, former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner

 

RFS Fires Near Me page

RFS major fire updates

School closures


Swell hasn’t yet arrive at Dee Why

Posted on July 8th, 2018 in At large, Big Picture, Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Flat at Dee Why Point

A ripple down the beach

 

According to the charts, at Dee Why, by now it’s supposed to be 2.3m at 11s with 18kn of wind. but it’s windless and there’s no sign yet of the impending swell. Small waves just folding over. Quite a bunch of people down at Long Reef, but in the 10 minutes I stood there looking up the beach, I didn’t see anyone catch anything. Not a soul in the water at Dee Why. Time will tell, I guess. I took a couple of photos, and I’l try to figure out how to load them.


Warriewood partially treated wastewater bypass event Tuesday night

Posted on April 20th, 2015 in Big Picture, News Stories.

Tuesday evening at 2122:

From Sydney Water

“Partially treated discharge at Warriewood at 2121 April 20th. Flows receiving wet weather treatment.”


SE wind from the get-go

Posted on November 27th, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

At 0100 this morning there was about 1.3 metres of 8-9 second period ENE wind swell showing on the MHL buoy. A little before 0400 the wind was around 15 kts from the SE and tide was headed to a low at around 0510. So, not the most promising outlook for the dawn patrol. If you have to give it a miss, don’t feel bad, conditions look dire from here.

Outlook remains marginal at best for the coming week and beyond in Sydney. Argh. Was really hoping for some fun summery beach break activity when I get back. Speaking of which, it’s pretty unlikely that I’ll be in a position to file a report between now and Tuesday morning, so here’s hoping the models have it all wrong and that when I get back everybody will be telling me how I really missed it…

Go well and see ya soon.

Weather Situation

A high to the west of Bass Strait is extending a ridge along the southern New South Wales coast in the wake of a low pressure trough, which is forecast to reach the Queensland border early this afternoon. The ridge will become the dominant synoptic feature during the next day or two, with generally southeasterly winds shifting more northerly on Friday and Saturday as a new high centre strengthens over the western Tasman Sea. This pattern is expected to block the progress of any approaching cold fronts until at least the early part of next week.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre in the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of a shower this morning.

Friday 28 November

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon then tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 29 November

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Oh spring where is thy sting?

Posted on November 26th, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

Pretty quiet out there. Early this morning the MHL buoy was detecting about a metre of 9-sec south wind swell. Wind was 10-15kts from NE and the forecast is calling for partly cloudy and 25 degrees with maybe a shower or two late this afternoon. Next tide is a high at 1140.

So, maybe there’ll be a scrappy and marginal little something in one of the north corners. I reckon knee to waist would be an excellent result.

Still nothing much of interest showing in the charts, but the betting seems to have firmed a little for some swell activity out of the south on Friday. Maybe dawn patrol that day to beat the wind and get a little tidal push.

Long range forecast models are not drawing a happy picture for Sydney. They predict some activity for the western Tasman, but the energy is projected to be going away from us over the next 10 days or so.

Just a head’s up that I may or may not be able to update until the first or second of December as I’ll be on the road one way or another.

Go well everybody and hope you find yourself a wave!

Weather Situation

A trough is stalled and weakening on the far north coast. A weak high pressure ridge lies over the southern and central coast. A southeasterly change will move along the coast late Wednesday and Thursday. A high pressure system will move into the central Tasman Sea Friday with rather fresh southeast winds on the north coast but lighter winds over remaining waters until afternoon sea breezes develop. The high is expected to move east over the Tasman on the weekend as a slow moving trough deepens near the NSW/SA border, resulting in freshening northeasterlies along the NSW coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers this evening.

Thursday 27 November

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon, then decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Friday 28 November

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots during the day then tending northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

A challenge even for the super keen

Posted on November 25th, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

Looking at the numbers for Sydney, I’m not really sure how possible it is to even catch a wave this morning. There’s only the faintest little shading on the MHL buoy spectral data chart. It looks to be under the metre mark at not quite 8 seconds from the ENE. High tide’s at 1050, so there’s that too. Wind was light offshore early, but it’s going to go southerly and then south-east later. Throw in the cloudy weather and 60% chance of a shower and it’s really not a recipe for a good surf day at all.

The longer range outlook remains, shall we say, quiet for Sydney. According to some models there might be a little something on Thursday/Friday… maybe…

Have a top old day one and all!

 

Weather Situation

A cold front will bring southerly change to New South Wales south and central coasts this morning extending to the far north coast in the evening. Winds along the coast will turn southeast to northeasterly during Wednesday as a high pressure system moves towards Tasmania extending a ridge to the north.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the morning then shifting east to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning.

Wednesday 26 November

Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.

Thursday 27 November

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly around 1 metre during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Drifting into the doldrums

Posted on November 24th, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

Not great numbers to start with this Tuesday. About a metre of 8-sec south wind swell showing on the MHL Sydney buoy and 10-15 kts of ESE wind along the coast. Throw in a high tide at a little after 1000 and I’m not overconfident about the wave prospects for you. Ankle to knee onshore slop is my prediction. Good day for work or school.

From the look of the forecasts, tomorrow isn’t too exciting looking, but there may possibly be some activity for the early on Wednesday morning.

Only a few days left on the Cali coast for me now. My reporting will stop after Weds and when it resumes early next week, I shall be back in dear old Sydney once more.

Went for a surf at Mesa Lane (bit of a go-to this trip) and pulled a few framegrabs from the gopro…

surfing at Mesa Lane

Another makeable section at Mesa Lane

longboarder mesa lane

This bloke was on fire, catching heaps at Mesa Lane

Fun wall at Mesa Lane

Yep, made this one too.

Pelicans glide past the peak

Pelicans glide past the peak

Have yourself a great Monday one and all!

Weather Situation

A low pressure trough that moved up the central NSW coast Sunday evening has weakened about the Hunter coast overnight. To the north of the trough northerly winds dominate and as the trough weakens further on Monday winds along the southern and central coasts will tend back to the north. This is ahead of a stronger southerly change associated with a cold front that is expected to develop on the south coast Monday night and move up the coast during Tuesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending south to southwesterly in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday 25 November

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeast 10 to 15 knots. Winds tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning locally reaching up to 30 knots then turning easterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Wednesday 26 November

Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, tending 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 40% chance of showers.

Microness for Sunday

Posted on November 23rd, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

Pre-dawn wind was northerly and it should stay that way for the first few hours of daylight before turning gradually to the NE. The MHL buoy was showing ENE wind swell of about 1.3 metres with some nearly 10 second component. My hunch is that means marginal dribble most places and maybe the odd waist high thing at magnet spots. The Bureau says the swell should come up a little during the day, but I’m not convinced it’ll amount to much.
Tomorrow morning could be a touch better, but Tuesday looks southerly and messy at this stage.
Nothing going on in the Santa Barbara surf zones this morning, although if you were truly desperate, it might be possible to get something in the knee to waist range after the tide turns, but before it drops too much.

A couple of postcards from Cali…

paddleboarder and dog at leadbetter beach ca

Tandem surfing with his pooch in Santa Barbara

Mesa Lane SBar

Pretty but just too small to surf at Mesa Lane

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast directing east to northeasterly winds along New South Wales coast. During Sunday morning a low pressure trough will bring a southerly change to the south coast extending to Sydney Waters in the late afternoon before weakening on the Hunter coast overnight. A stronger southerly change associated with a cold front is expected to develop on the south coast Monday night and move up the coast during Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

Monday 24 November

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Tuesday 25 November

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Short period stuff

Posted on November 22nd, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

15 kts of southerly blowing at 0530 and about 1.6 metres of 6-sec period SSE wind swell hitting the MHL buoy. And there’s a high tide a little after 0800. Not a recipe for great things I’d have to say. In fact, I’d probably-in given those numbers. Best I reckon you could hope for would be some floppy little knee to waist high lumps at the most exposed spots (where the wind’ll be strongest too).

Outlook for the next week isn’t overly impressive. At this stage I’d say finding anything above waist high will be an achievement. Here’s hoping the models are undercalling it…

Here are few postcards from the last few days of swell in Cali. My mate Peter and I scored waves all by ourselves two days running. It can happen, even in California…

Surfing Driftwood, CA

Surfing Driftwood, CA

Paddling out at Deadmans, CA

Nice set arrives as paddling out at Deadmans, CA

My mate Peter picks up a fun wall at Deadmans

My mate Peter picks up a fun wall at Deadmans

kneeboarding deadmans

Peter breaking through the whitewater at Deadmans on his kneeboard

Walled up wave at Deadmans

For me? Why thank you Huey!

The Wall surfing Ventura

Dusk at the wall, north Ventura county

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast, while a weak trough lies to its south over the NSW Mid North Coast. This trough resulted in a brief southerly change on Friday; however as the trough stalls and weakens on the north coast on Saturday the high will again become dominant allowing winds to tend back to the northeast, especially in the south. Another weak trough and southerly change affect southern and central areas late Sunday. A more substantial southerly change appears likely with the arrival of a cold front early next week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunday 23 November

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening.

Monday 24 November

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting north to northwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Very small south

Posted on November 19th, 2014 in Big Picture.

Hello Friends,

As of 0200 the MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres of 9-second period south swell. As I wrote this at around 0500, wind was a steady 10 kts from the ESE and the next tide was the high at 0645. There should be some waist plus sets at magnet spots, but the wind will be an issue and the high tide won’t help either. Plus, the Bureau says we can expect the swell to fade during the day. Argh.

It looks like very tiny conditions for the next few days. Tomorrow’s shaping to be really little but Friday could maybe see a small uptick into the waist plus range as the swell perks from the NE and the morning sees stiffish offshores.

Another quiet day on the surf front in southern Cali as we wait for the arrival of swell tomorrow. Went for a stroll along a beach west of Santa Barbara yesterday afternoon. It’s a spot-rich but swell-poor stretch of coast that is flat most of the time, but with the right swell direction (as is forecast for tomorrow…) it can light up very nicely indeed.

west of driftwood

Looking west from Driftwood

looking east from driftwood

If that wave was a foot bigger…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system centred near Victorian coast extends a ridge into New South Wales resulting in a fairly weak pressure pattern. A weak trough will decay in the north today as the high shifts east to the Tasman Sea and becomes dominant. This is forecast to bring a return to generally northerly winds during the second half of the week, increasing Thursday and Friday as the next trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 20 November

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 21 November

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning, before shifting southerly during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.