Hello Friends,

The Bureau says we can expect the SW wind to be in the 25-30 kt range this morning. At 0645 it was 15-25, so they’ve nailed it. Overnight the swell has ramped up pretty sharply too. The MHL buoy was reporting an average height of the south swell at sea of close to four metres with a period range of 9-10 seconds. Combined sea and swell was running at up to six metres, so you won’t want to be taking the tinnie out this morning.

However, despite the size out at sea, the biggest wave I saw ridden when I checked the Collaroy-Narrabeen and Longy to Dee Why stretch was struggling to make head high. The average one was smaller than that. It appears the swell is just going past us at the moment as it is perhaps being held offshore by the SW wind direction. If the wind goes more to the south per the forecast, then a bit more energy may get through to us.

I’m with the Goat on the outlook for the next week!

Have yourself a great day and see you at the polls.

TIDES: L @0910, H @1510

Weather Situation

A low pressure trough will move across the Tasman Sea on Saturday with a vigorous southerly airstream in its wake gradually weakening. A high centred south of the Bight will move east and enter the southern Tasman Sea from Sunday followed by an onshore airstream developing along the NSW coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds: Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Southerly 2 to 3 metres.

Forecast for Sunday

Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Now, here’s a mystery. According to the MHL Sydney waverider buoy, the swell is dead south at a respectable three metres with an okay period of close to 9 seconds. And yet it’s only about waist to chest high at best along the Dee Why to No Man’s stretch. There were a couple chaps on a small and junky peak at the aforesaid No Man’s and the wave in the picture broke for some distance, but the SSE wind was pushing along at a junk-inducing 10-15 kts.

If you look at the MHL combined plot, you’ll see the swell spiked up to 4 metres at Batemans Bay late yesterday and has now dropped back just under two metres at daybreak. Sydney seems to have peaked at closer to three metres and is headed downward pretty quickly.

All of which is a long way of saying that you should get out there asap while the tide is starting to run back in (the low was 0730) as it heads for a high at around 1340. The wind is set to moderate as it swings through the onshore quarters from SE to NE by this afternoon.

Huey’s looking like staying in an indolent mood for at least another week to ten days according to the latest run of the wave forecast models for our part of the world. It would appear that we can expect the energy levels to bump up and down in the ankle to waist high range across the period.

Go well with your day and good luck with your wave hunting!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight will move quickly east through Bass Strait to the Tasman Sea today. It will then remain over the southern Tasman Sea through the week, with a ridge extending to the mid-north coast of New South Wales. The next southerly change may affect the New South Wales coast on Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots around midday then tending east to northeasterly by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1.5 to 3 metres.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: North to northeasterly 5 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Forecast for Thursday

Winds: Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the morning then tending southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds tending northeast to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southeasterly 1 metre.

The next routin

Afternoon update:
Not much interesting going on at Dee Why or Curly when I checked while running an errand this afternoon. It’s not flat, but the swell’s definitely smaller and flabbier than it’s been since this time last week. Wind isn’t helping either. Tomorrow looks like being smaller again, but with better wind prospects. Could be worth a look for the early at spots that like a south swell, NW wind combo…

Hello Friends,

The vernal equinox dawned grey and onshore for Sydney. From now until next March, the days will be longer than the nights. Summer is rolling toward us kids. Not that it’s very summery today. Swell is still out of the south this morning and still around the two metre mark. The average period peaked briefly in the 12 second range around lunchtime yesterday but has now dropped back to 10 seconds. There’s some 13 second component in amongst it, so assuming it’s coming from the same direction, that would mean the odd bigger set. For the most part it’s around the waist to chest high range and pretty messy thanks to the 5-10kts of SE wind.

The Bureau says the wind will swing around through the east to the north east later, so maybe there’ll be something in the semi-exposed north corners this afternoon. It’s supposed to stay cloudy all day and there’s a chance of showers this morning.

Happily, the outlook on the models is for another couple of small south pulses – one tomorrow and one Saturday before we enter what looks to be a few days of marginal to flat conditions.

Your correspondent will by that stage be focused on the prospects of a wave at Huntington pier as I’m making a trip to see my family in the US. Expect a few soCal flavoured reports while I’m there!

Have yourself a top old day and get up to some good on the way through if you can.

Weather Situation from the Bureau

A weak trough on the central NSW coast will move slowly north today as a high over the Bight extends a ridge to the south coast.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming southeasterly up to 10 knots around midday then tending east to northeasterly later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres.
Forecast for Friday

Winds: North to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots around midday then tending north to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southeast to southwesterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon then tending northeast to southeasterly during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

The Bureau’s call is for SE wind today in the 15 kt range. As things got started this morning, swell was around two metres from the south at around 8 seconds apart. At Dee Why that means a few widely spaced waist to chest high things along the beach, and not much of anything at the point. Winds were very light but the baleful direction does not bode well for later.

The Bureau and this morning’s run of the models say that we’re in a downward trend over the next 72 hours or so. If you’re keen, the plan is to get out there as early as you can and see if you can find something at your favourite south swell spot because the next opportunity looks as though it could be around Saturday when we might get another small south pulse.

Go well with your day and keep on smilin’!

Weather Situation

A high pressure ridge dominates NSW coast with winds expected to ease and tend east to northeast by the end of the day. Fresh northwesterly airstream is expected to develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds are likely to become strong and gusty on Friday and tend west to southwest in a wake of the front.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds: Southeasterly 5 to 15 knots. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Thursday

Winds: Northeasterly 5 to 15 knots tending northerly 15 to 20 knots around midday then tending northwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday then increasing to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Friday

Winds: West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending westerly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly 1 metre tending northeasterly during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Another round of showers and so-so conditions for Sydney this morning. The ocean looks kinda junky and small which figures because the average period has dropped to around the 8 second mark. Swell is still coming from the SE and is averaging around 1.5 metres.

This morning’s run of the WAMs is looking okay for the Sydney region. If things play out as expected, we should see ENE facing stretches benefiting from a little pulse out of that direction starting late tonight and continuing for 36-48 hours. The bigger spots could be seeing head high sets on the bombs, although at this stage it looks as though the average heights will be closer to chest high.

We have a gale warning in the Sydney region today, but the call is for the rain to clear away by early tomorrow morning. From Wednesday onward, the Bureau is expecting mainly sunny weather. Throw in a generally NW to W wind regime, and it’s looking good.

Go well with your day!

TIDES: H @0810, L @1350
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Gale Warning.
Tuesday until midnight: Wind: North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the morning and reaching 35 knots offshore at times in the afternoon.Sea: 2 to 3 metres reaching 3.5 metres offshore.Swell: Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres. Chance thunderstorm.
Wednesday: Wind: Northwesterly 15 to 25 knots reaching 30 knots offshore, tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots around dawn and reaching 30 knots offshore in the evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres reaching 3 metres offshore at times.Swell: Northeasterly 2 to 3 metres.
Thursday: Wind: West to northwesterly 20 to 25 knots tending west to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Gee, I hope to be proven wrong, but this winter seems to be following the pattern of last year, ie, great start but fizzling into ordinariness by August. I’ve got to wait for the rain to lift before I can get a snap, but from the way it looked through the murk, not much of anything is happening down at Dee Why. Couldn’t see anyone in the water and it seemed to be for good reason as there really ain’t much energy.

Had an errand this morning, so I turned it into a surf check – as you do. Actually it was more sort of a dribble check. Surface conditions were pretty clean under the showery grey skies at around 0900. There were a couple bods waiting around at Mona Vale and another half dozen at the other end of the beach at Warriewood. Set faces were into the chest high range, but the waves were very weak looking thanks to the 8 second period. Since the waves are coming from the south, Northy wasn’t too attractive. You know it’s ordinary when there’s only one person in the water.

I’m going to keep an eye on it today though because despite the general gloominess of the swell forecast models, the MHL buoy off Batemans Bay is showing a slight upward trend in the period. It’s around the 9 second mark down there as opposed to 8 in Sydney. Only a small thing… but ya never know…

There’s an interesting low off NZ on the charts, so I think there’s a possibility that some long period energy could get to the Sydney region in maybe 36-48 hours. Friday for the early could be a goer… if it happens, we should be able to see the energy hit the MHL Eden and Batemans Bay buoys first.

Fingers are crossed…

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots by early evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres.Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday: Wind: South to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots tending southerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres.Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Friday: Wind: Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Yesterday’s energy levels seem to have faded back a fair amount overnight. Swell’s still out of the SE, but it’s now only about a metre at sea. The 8 second average period hasn’t changed, but the slightly longer period component evident yesterday has disappeared from the data.

All of which adds up to rather minor conditions. If you can find something in the waist high range, I reckon you’ll be doing very well in Sydney.

Outlook is for a couple days of marginal conditions before we get a small perk on Weds into the waist to chest high range. The models are still calling for something a bit bigger late in the week. How much bigger? Into the head high plus range if we’re lucky according to some riffs on the data…

And the weather today in Sydney? Here’s the latest from the Australian Bureau of Meterology

Forecast for Monday
Early fog and mist patches in the west. Cloud increasing with light
rain developing during the afternoon. Light to moderate northwest to
northeast winds.

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Monday until midnight: Wind: Light and variable winds tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon and evening.Sea: to about 1 metre.Swell: South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Tuesday: Wind: Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Wednesday: Wind: West to southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots ahead of an east to southeasterly change 20 to 30 knots.

Hello Friends,

At first glance I thought we were into flatness this morning. But after watching it for awhile and seeing a couple waist high plus set waves up the beach from Dee Why SLSC, I’m thinking there might be a little something for the patient at south exposed stretches.

According to the MHL data, the average height of swell at sea is a bit better than 1.5 metres. However, the average period is only 7 seconds. Fortunately there’s also some 10 sec component in there – hence the sets. From the shape of the data down at south, we might see a small improvement in the average period (it’s up to 9 seconds at Eden for instance).

There isn’t much wind to start with, but as the showers clear away, the SE’r will gradually shut down the places with the best exposure to the swell. So this morning’s probably about as good as it gets for Sydneysiders. From here forward looks like marginal to nearly flat through the weekend and beyond.

Have yourself a great day!

TIDES:  L @0630, H @1230

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Wednesday until midnight: Wind: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.Sea: about 1 metre.Swell: South to southeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Wind: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly in the evening.Sea: about 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Friday: Wind: West to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots decreasing below 10 knots during the morning then tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.