This morning’s forecast tells us we can expect it to get up to 36 before a south change develops in the afternoon. From the cast of the latest models it would seem that we’re not likely to see much in the way of wave action this afternoon. It looks as though the peak will hit overnight, but there should be some energy in the morning tomorrow. The problem is that we’re also set to have southerlies (and grey skies), so the quality prospects don’t look too flash. There could be some sizable sets in the protected corners though. According to the models, the pulse is likely to fade very quickly.
Stay cool and go well!
TIDES: H @0700, L @1340
Weather Situation A high pressure system north of New Zealand extends a ridge to southern Queensland, while a trough of low pressure lies across southern and central parts of the New South Wales coast. This trough will link with a cold front today, pushing a southerly change along much of the coast as a ridge builds across the south. This pattern then looks set to remain relatively unchanged through to the end of the week, when another high strengthens from the west before moving to the Tasman Sea.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds: Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then tending west to southwesterly around midday. A southerly change 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres increasing up to 3 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre tending easterly 1 metre later. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Forecast for Wednesday Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the morning. Swell: Easterly 2 metres tending southerly about 2 metres from the morning.
Forecast for Thursday Winds: Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly during the morning then tending northeast to northwesterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending east to southeasterly up to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms from midday.
Rather small at Dee Why centre when I grabbed the snap this morning a little after 0730. There were two folk bobbing about in the low and glassy SSE swell. Out at sea it’s around the metre mark at about 8 seconds apart, so there isn’t much prospect of anything bigger coming in for awhile yet.
The wind is set to pick up later and by this evening we should see 15-20 kts of southerly across Sydney’s beaches. So I wouldn’t be expecting much in the way of an improvement to surf prospects today.
Wednesday should see a small uptick in energy levels as a long period south pulse briefly brushes past Sydney. It looks like the best hope will be for the early in the south corners as we’re set to have 15-20 kts of S-SE wind and the swell pulse could drop away pretty quickly if the models have it right. Tide will be low but coming in, so that could be helpful.
Thursday and Friday look like marking points along a declining graph that’s heading toward flatness for Friday
Couple other things to mention, first if you’d like to check out Tim Bonython’s 2011 Australian Surf Movie Festival I have a few pairs of tix to give away for the Friday Harbord Diggers show the 11th at 8pm and Saturday the 12th at 8pm at Palm Beach RSL. Tim says the live music for both nights will be provided by Juzzie Smith.
To be in with a chance, all you have to do is contact me via the link top right of our home page and tell me 1) your name 2) your second person’s name 3) your mobile number so I can confirm back.
On another front, if you look over at the right of the page, you’ll see I’m putting a 140×600 tower ad position up for auction. The winner’s ad will run continuously for 30 days on our home page. Bidding starts at a paltry $99 (about a 1/20th of what it would cost ordinarily). Just click on the ad, or go here, and you can register a bid. The auction closes next Monday night.
Have yourself a top old day!
Tides: H @1210, L @1820
Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system south of the Bight is moving slowly east, while a ridge extends north along the New South Wales coast. The high is forecast to reach the Tasman Sea during Wednesday before slipping away towards New Zealand later in the week. At the same time, the next cold front is expected to approach from the southwest, and is likely to affect southern and central parts of the coast during the weekend.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre.
Forecast for Wednesday
Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre by early evening. Swell: Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Forecast for Thursday
Winds: East to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly about 1.5 metres.
After lunch I wandered over to North Narrabeen to see what was what. There were small waves from about the Pines all the way to the Alley. A bunch of bodyboarders were looking to get smashed near carparks, while up at Northy things were slightly less hectic for the small crowd. As with Curly, the waves weren’t much to write home about, but the lack of wind meant people could enjoy some soft, glassy little peaks that very occasionally produced a mildly interesting section.
I grabbed a few piccies, so check ‘em out below…
BTW, if you end up wanting to buy a pic or pics from any of my galleries, then be sure to enter the coupon code HAPPYSURF and it will take 33% off the bottom line for ya.
To get a picture from the gallery Go to the picture you like, click on it so that you see the big version, then look up top left for the button that says “Add to Cart” and click on that. Click on the size you want. And then, if you just want the one, click on “Add and Checkout” at the bottom of the window – or if you want another, click on “Add to Cart” and go back to select another.
Dull grey skies this morning were hinted at late yesterday when cloud came sliding over the western horizon. There was a little perk (as foretold by the models) yesterday afternoon at south swell spots. I managed to jag a few fun ones at Longy where sets got into the chest to shoulder high range. The swell has faded back a touch according to the MHL data and is currently out of the SSE at about a metre at a touch over 8 seconds. So, there might be the odd little set getting in at south exposed spots. Judging from Dee Why though, I’m not overly hopeful because it was very small when I climbed up into the crows nest for my usual daily pic.
According to the latest run of the models we’re in for a week of very small conditions in Sydney. But there is hope for the end of the week. It looks as though a good south pulse could fill in overnight on Friday and next Saturday morning could be fun at south swell spots.
But, it’s a long way out, so we’ll just put it in the hopeful category for now, eh?
Go well with your day!
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Monday until midnight: Wind: North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly by early evening then tending westerly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening.Sea: Up to 1.5 metres.Swell: Southerly about 1 metre. Tuesday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots around midday then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds 20 to 25 knots by early evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres.Swell: Northeasterly 0.5 metres. Wednesday: Wind: Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots.
But not much to take, sadly. This is an example of the infrequent sets.
Hello Friends,
Well, as expected, the surf situation is pretty marginal. That hasn’t stopped a small fleet of super peak acolytes from attending that celebrated heap of submerged Dee Why sand though.
Sets are further apart and it’s much smaller than this time yesterday. About the biggest thing I saw was struggling to make chest high on the takeoff (trough to crest). So, it isn’t totally flat, but compared to Wed-Friday of last week, it’s, well, you wouldn’t want to compare.
I’d be taking the fish or the mal to ensure maximum fun extraction from the conditions. Because it’s so marginal, the number of surfable options around the Sydney region will not be too plentiful. And that means more chums at the few spots that are working.
Outlook is for the flat to near flat conditions to persist through Monday night, but thereafter it looks as though we could be in for some solid south swell through Thursday. One of the models is currently predicting 3-4 metres of 15sec south swell from around mid-morning Tuesday. If the Bureau’s right about the wind, then there could be interesting conditions in the morning, turning onshore in the afternoon.
Weather may not be too good for picture taking though, as the Bureau is saying we could have showers on and off from Tuesday through to the weekend.
Go well with your plans and adventures!
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Sunday until midnight: Wind: N/NW 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots offshore at times.Sea: to about 1.5 metres. Swell: S/SE below 1 metre. Monday: Wind: W/SW 10/20 knots.Sea: to 2 metres. Swell: S/SE 1 metre. Tuesday: Wind: SW 10/20 knots turning S/SE 15/25 knots.
Seems to be quite a wait between them, but there are occasional set waves to be had.
Hello Friends,
Nippy out there (by Sydney standards) this morning. Scattered cloud about as the day gets into gear, and most important, we have a little trickle of swell for those who like their carpark suiting up on the brisk side. Happily, there is a tiny trickle of swell for the keen. It’s characterised by long waits though because the only surfable sets are those with a 12 second period. The average period is only 8 seconds, and since the primary swell direction is SSE and the height at sea only a metre, that means in between the longer period sets it’s going to be just about flat.
At around 0800, the wind was still relatively light and from the NW. However, as the Bureau forecast below indicates, it’s going to pick up this morning and be whipping along at 25-33 kts as we get to the other end of the day.
And it doesn’t look like backing off overnight. Indeed, it could be blasting along at up to 40 kts from the W by this time tomorrow. The models aren’t all predicting the same set of conditions for us. Some project the arrival of solid swell by tomorrow, while others are saying Thursday will be the day. They do agree that it’s most likely to be out of the south with a period into the 10 sec range and size at sea into the 4 metre range.
So, if you had to peg out a day for a wave, it looks like Thursday might not be a bad plan…
Go well with your day!
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Gale warning Tuesday until midnight: Wind: W 15/20 knots, reaching 25/30 knots offshore, increasing to 20/30 knots generally this morning, then to W/SW 25/33 knots this evening.Sea: 2 to 3 metres, rising to 2.5 to 3.5 metres this evening.Swell: SE up to 1 metre. Wednesday: Wind: W 25/35 knots, possibly reaching 35/40 knots at times. Turning W/SW during the morning, S/SW later. Sea: 2.5 to 4 metres. Swell: SE about 1 metre, increasing to S 3 to 4 metres. Thursday: Wind: S/SW 25/35 knots, easing to 15/25 knots later.
Tight little group of folk were ready to pounce on anything remotely surfable at this tiny peak.
Hello Friends,
It’s a pleasant enough early winter’s day in Sydney, but the surf situation is pretty ordinary. About the best you can say is that at least it’s not dead south, so something does trickle in every now and again. Swell at sea is around a metre from the SSE at about 8 seconds apart. As my picture shows, this can translate into the occasional waist high bomb set. With luck, as the tide drops (it’s low at around 1330), a few more little peaks will come into play. However, there is the issue of the wind.
The Bureau says the W-NW breeze of this morning is going to be pushing along at a pretty intense 20-30 kts by dark – and then it looks set to stay that way for most of the coming work week.
According to the models, we can pretty much write off wave hopes until late Wednesday. Thursday remains hopeful for Sydney surfers, so if you can, block out a little space in the calendar just in case. Ya never know…
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Strong wind warning Sunday until midnight: Wind: W/NW 8/13 knots increasing to 13/18 knots by afternoon then 20/30 knots in the evening.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres.Swell: E/SE 1.0 to 1.5 metre. Monday: Wind: W/NW 20/30 knots.Sea: 2 to 3 metres.Swell: SE 1 to 1.5 metres. Tuesday: Wind: W’ly 20/30 knots.
Running behind with my contribution this morning. Wish it was because I’d been surfing. Sadly, we have a classic little (we hope!) winter-style flat spell. We have west to WNW winds and a very small, just about straight south swell. That combo will be delivering next to nothing at most places. You might spot a very tiny peak at a stretch of beach with straight south exposure. But I wouldn’t be counting on finding anything.
There’s quite an intense low deep in the Tasman at the moment, but from the look of the charts, it may not end up slinging much our way because the dominant fetch won’t get pointed in our general direction for long. When I say “much” I mean big swell of the sort we had last week. It should definitely be fun size and surfable from the middle part of the day tomorrow. How big? Hmmm… waist to chest with the odd shoulder high set at places facing south?
So, what has the Bureau to say?
Good day for a walk along the beach.
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Monday until midnight: Wind: W/NW 20/25 knots at first, easing to 18/23 knots by the afternoon.Sea: about 2 metres abating to 1 to 2 metres. Swell: S/SW about 1 metre increasing to 2 metres during the day. Tuesday: Wind: W/SW 20/30 knots.Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: S about 2 metres. Wednesday: Wind: SW/NW 10/15 knots.
Dull skies greeted Sydneysiders this morning. Dull skies and small, but not flat, conditions at Dee Why. The MHL data shows we have the same metre or so of SSE windswell (8 sec period) we’ve seen for the last couple days. The good news then is if you found a wave yesterday, go back there again and you should be right.
As far as Dee Why goes, there seem to be weak little lines coming in and, as late as 0800, pretty much no one in the water from the point to well up the beach from the DYSLSC.
We’re set for a few more showers this morning, before the afternoon turns partly cloudy. The light SE winds this morning should turn to the E-NE this afternoon.
I’m gonna go out and check a couple more beaches for ya, so more in an hour or so…
Not looking fabulous, but not flat at Dee Why at 0800
Weak little south pulse showing on the buoy data this morning, but I can’t see much of anything showing at Dee Why. But I wasn’t really expecting to, given that it’s barely a metre out at sea from the SSE and the period is a gutless 8 seconds.
It should push up a bit today according to the Bureau. The wind is set to reach 20-30 kts from the SW-SE, before backing of again to 15-20 kts. There’s not much of a breeze as I write this around 0800, but down the coast at places like Ulladulla and Green Cape, the wind has kicked up and is blowing anywhere from 10-25kts from the SSW. The latest buoy data isn’t showing any significant increase in the average swell size though, so I’m not real optimistic about our hopes for a significant improvement in the next few hours.
Model watchers have no doubt picked up on the prospects of a brief very long period pulse coming our way in Sydney around Weds mid-afternoon. It’s looking mighty brief though. Maybe 12-16 hours. And it is possible that the peak will hit in the middle of the night. How big? Well, if the forecast period of 16-18 seconds eventuates and if it’s 1.5-2 metres, we’d be talking sets well into the overhead range at exposed south spots.
Here’s the Bureau’s marine forecast for Sydney for the next few days:
Sydney Coastal Waters,Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Strong Wind Warning. Monday until midnight: Wind: SW/SE increasing to 20/30 knots during the late morning, before easing to 15/20 knots later.Sea: 1 to 1.5 metres rising 2 to 3 metres late morning, abating later.Swell: S’ly 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to about 2 metres. Tuesday: Wind: SW/SE 10/15 knots tending NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: to 1 metre.Swell: S 1.5 to 2 metres. Wednesday Outlook: Wind: N/NE increasing to 20/25 knots in afternoon. Thursday Outlook: Wind: NW/NE 15/25 knots
I like the look of Thursday morning – if that pulse a) materialises and b) really does have an 18 sec period.
A couple requests for you this morning, if I may…
I’m looking for a notebook capable of running XP but my budget is only a couple hundred bucks – so I’m not expecting to get much! If you have such an object, drop me a note via our contact form.
Second request, I’m interested in hearing about any good surf bloggers you’ve come across. You know the deal: someone who writes regularly about a particular location from a surfer perspective.
